Viewing archive of Monday, 14 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 14/1714Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 14/0043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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