Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 19/0357Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 18/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 071 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 013/016-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 20% |
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