Viewing archive of Monday, 17 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 17/0724Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 415 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 071 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 005/005-008/008-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 50% |
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