Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 August 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 779 km/s at 04/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 946 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 073
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 073/073/073
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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