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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 03/1612Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 073
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  009/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

All times in UTC

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