Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 August 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 02/2058Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 02/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 197 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 073 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 073/071/071 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
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