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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Aug 070
  Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        31 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Aug  021/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  013/015-011/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%50%40%

All times in UTC

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