Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 01/1129Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 01/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 01/0433Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 070 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 019/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 011/012-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 20% |
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