Viewing archive of Monday, 28 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 28/0016Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 27/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 27/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 15792 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with an outside chance for a
major storm on day one (29 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two
(30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 074 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 025/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 026/038-020/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 75% | 45% |
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