Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 29/0012Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 28/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 13675 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (02 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 073 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 028/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 021/020-013/015-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 45% | 10% |
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