Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 September 2020

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 30/1435Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29293 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 073
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  017/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  013/015-011/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%05%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm45%10%10%

All times in UTC

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