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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 26/2247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 19940 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Oct, 29 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 082
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  015/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%25%

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