Viewing archive of Friday, 15 September 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 15/0629Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/1826Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at 14/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32096 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 073
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 073/073/075
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  019/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  025/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  019/025-014/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%40%

All times in UTC

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