Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 821 km/s at 16/1435Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 16/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22886 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 072
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 072/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  030/041
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  024/031
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  016/020-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm60%40%40%

All times in UTC

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