Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/0152Z from Region 2672 (N05E75). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 813 km/s at 20/0248Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/2256Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 086
  Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  023/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  014/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%25%20%

All times in UTC

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