Viewing archive of Monday, 21 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/0316Z from Region 2672 (N07E61). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 770 km/s at 21/0311Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52010 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Aug 087
  Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 089/089/089
  90 Day Mean        21 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  021/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Aug  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  011/012-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm35%20%15%

All times in UTC

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