Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 19/0137Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 19/1630Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/0624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/0709Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 087
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 088/090/090
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  020/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  023/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  017/022-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm50%35%25%

All times in UTC

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