Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/1503Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 11/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 11/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2482 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 070 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 024/035-020/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 55% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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