Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0152Z from Region 2672 (N05E75). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug,
23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 813 km/s at 20/0248Z. Total IMF
reached 5 nT at 19/2151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-4 nT at 19/2256Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 23392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Aug, 22 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 086 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 023/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 014/018-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 20% |
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