Viewing archive of Friday, 14 August 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0200Z from Region 2401 (S12E37). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 14/0816Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/1447Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 093
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  014/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/005-018/025-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm01%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm15%60%45%

All times in UTC

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