Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (15
Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
435 km/s at 12/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1020Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 749 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 095 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/005-006/005-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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