Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 August 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/1236Z from Region 2401 (S11E22). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at 15/1433Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 15/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 15/1008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 089
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  027/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm25%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%40%20%

All times in UTC

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