Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 July 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/1442Z from Region 2388 (N14W81). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 395 km/s at 17/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5016 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 096
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  007/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/010-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm35%35%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%20%

All times in UTC

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