Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 21/0944Z from Region 2367 (S18W64). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 21/1853Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1912Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 21/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (22 Jun), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (22 Jun), are expected to cross threshold on day two (23 Jun) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton99%90%70%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 136
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun   002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  032/060-026/042-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm35%40%05%
Major-severe storm50%25%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%15%
Minor storm10%15%30%
Major-severe storm90%85%30%

All times in UTC

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