Viewing archive of Monday, 22 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 22 2220 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066 pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 135
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun   0NA/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  035/054
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  024/040-014/020-018/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%35%
Minor storm40%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%10%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm90%70%60%

All times in UTC

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