Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 July 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 21/1803Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 091
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  006/005-013/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm20%30%35%
Major-severe storm20%45%35%

All times in UTC

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