Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 21/2129Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 22/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jul, 24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 089
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  013/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm45%35%25%

All times in UTC

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