Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 June 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 24/1529Z from Region 2371 (N11W40). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 778 km/s at 24/1415Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 24/1320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2329Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 30 pfu at 24/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (25 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (25 Jun), are likely to cross threshold on day two (26 Jun) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton80%60%40%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 110
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  047/078
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  017/025-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%10%
Minor storm25%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm65%35%10%

All times in UTC

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