Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 27/2131Z from Region 2356 (S15E75). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 383 km/s at 28/0316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/2036Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 May) and quiet levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 May 093
  Predicted   29 May-31 May 090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        28 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

All times in UTC

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