Viewing archive of Friday, 1 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0257Z from Region 2335 (S15E63). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 529 km/s at 01/1348Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1833Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 100
  Predicted   02 May-04 May 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        01 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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