Viewing archive of Friday, 29 May 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 29/1843Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/0224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1219Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
Class M01%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 May 092
  Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        29 May 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 May  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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