Viewing archive of Monday, 20 July 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 306 km/s at 20/1939Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6019 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 093
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  008/008-006/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%35%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%45%

All times in UTC

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