Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N13E65)
produced the largest flare of the period, a B6/Sf at 28/0307Z.
Region 1559 (N18E63) an Axx-alpha type group was numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (29-31 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (29-31 August).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 111 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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