Viewing archive of Monday, 27 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1558 (N18E78)
produced the largest flare of the period, a B9 at 27/0821Z. Three
new regions were numbered: Region 1556 (S12W79) an Axx-alpha type
group; Region 1557 (N17E38) a Bxo-beta type group; and Region 1558 a
Bxo-beta type group. The remaining numbered regions were stable and
quiet. Several CMEs were observed however none appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on days 1-2 (28-29 August) due to continued effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream. On day 3 (30 August), conditions
are expected to return to predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 112 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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