Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C1 at 1817Z from a region just around the east limb.
No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions. A slight chance exists for high latitudes to
reach major storm levels on 27 August, increasing to a chance on 28
- 29 August. Increased activity is due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 113 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
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