Viewing archive of Monday, 24 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at
24/1542Z from new Region 1578 (N21E10). Another C1 flare occurred
at 24/1931Z from an unnumbered region currently rotating onto the
northeast limb. Another new region rotated onto the southeast limb
and was numbered Region 1579 (S09E70). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-3 (25-27 September). On days
2-3 (26-27 September), the greater than 10 MeV proton probability
increases to a slight chance due to potential activity from active
regions rotating around the southeast limb.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 137 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 001/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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