Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C4 at 29/1958Z from a region just around the southeast limb.
Region 1560 (N04E36) a Dao-beta type group was numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (30 August - 01 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day 1 (30 August). Days 2 and
3 (31 August - 01 September) are expected to be quiet to unsettled
with a slight chance for active conditions due to effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 118 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
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