Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east
limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with
a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a
slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 128 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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