Viewing archive of Friday, 3 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1538 (S22E28), 1539
(S23E45), and 1540 (S27E60) produced C-class flares; the largest was
a C2/1f from Region 1539 at 0600Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity: 622 km/s). A slow CME was observed off
the southeast limb at 0624Z but is not expected to be geoeffective.
Two new regions were numbered: Region 1540 (S27E60), a small bipolar
group and Region 1541 (S15E64), a small unipolar spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (August 04-06).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 140 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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