Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred during the period. A CME associated with a filament
eruption was observed in LASCO imagery off the southwest quadrant of
the solar disk, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 110 Predicted 27 May-29 May 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 26 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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