Viewing archive of Friday, 25 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred. Two new active Regions, 1491 (N23W29) and 1492 (S13E65)
were numbered today. A few CMEs were observed during the period,
but all appear to be limb events and non-geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (26-28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (26 May) due to a CME
from 22 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days 2-3 (27-28
May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 117 Predicted 26 May-28 May 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 25 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
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