Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1504 (S15W89)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 21/1814Z which was the largest
event of the period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly very low for the next three days. There is a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1504 on day 1 (22 June) as
it approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet on 22-24 June.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 098 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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