Viewing archive of Friday, 22 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. New Region 1511
(N15W17) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period. Region 1511 is capable of isolated
C-class flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 June).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 088 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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