Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to low-level
C-class events from Regions 1465 (S18W80), 1466 (N13W65), 1467
(N12E04), 1469 (S19W01) and 1471 (S23E57). New Region 1472 (S29E40)
emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar group. GONG H-alpha and
SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed a filament eruption along a six degree
long channel centered near N06E36, just to the SE of Region 1467.
This eruption occurred during the period 28/1800 - 2000Z. Associated
multiple CME activity was visible off the east limb as observed in
LASCO/C2 imagery at 28/1936Z and 28/2024Z. At the time of this
report, analysis was ongoing as to the geoeffective nature of these
CMEs.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (30 April - 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the
period, ACE solar wind velocities ranged between 380 to 440 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for day one (30 April).
By days two and three (01 - 02 May), quiet to unsettled levels with
a slight chance for isolated active periods are expected as a
coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 116 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 004/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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