Viewing archive of Monday, 30 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Before rotating off the west limb of the solar disk, Region
1465 (S18W95) produced a long duration C3 x-ray flare at 30/0738Z.
Associated with this event were both a Type II radio sweep
(estimated shock velocity of 645 km/s) and a non-Earth directed CME.
Region 1471 (S22E45) also produced multiple C-class events and
appears to be growing in sunspot area and magnetic complexity as it
rotates further into view. No new sunspot regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (01 - 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained at
nominal levels throughout the summary period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (01
- 02 May) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position. A return to quiet levels is expected on day
three (03 May) as the effects of the high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 114 Predicted 01 May-03 May 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/008-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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