Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April) due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04 April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06 April) is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 104
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  100/110/115
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%

All times in UTC

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