Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W04) produced two B4 flare events, one at 02/2220Z
and the other at 03/1228Z. A weak CME associated with a filament
eruption near N30E11, became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at
02/2348Z. This CME has a northerly trajectory and is not expected
to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (04-06
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (04-05 April)
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on 04
April, followed by the anticipated arrival of a weak CME associated
with the filament eruption that occurred at 02/0224Z. Day three (06
April) is expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 104 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 100/110/115 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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