Viewing archive of Monday, 2 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1451 (N17E25) produced a B7 event at 02/0234Z. New Regions
1452 (N18E47) and 1453 (S17E01) were numbered today. A weak
Earth-directed CME, associated with a filament eruption near N26E14,
became visible on LASCO C2 imagery at 02/0224Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days
(03-05 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day one (03 April). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (04-05
April) due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on 04 April followed the next day by the arrival of the weak
CME associated with this mornings filament eruption.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 106 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 110/125/130 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
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