Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only minor B-class/Sf flares were observed, one from Region 1444 (N21W86) at 31/2107 and from 1450 (N17E22) at 01/1454Z. The event from Region 1444 was associated with a narrow eruption visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The ejecta is not expected to be geoeffective. The remaining regions were quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the first two days of the period (02-03 April). The probability of a C class event increases on Day 3 (04 April) with the anticipated return of Old Region 1434 (S22 L=207).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagneic field was quiet. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft gradually declined from around 380 km/s at the beginning of the period to about 320 km/s by the end. At approximately 01/0800Z, ACE indicated a solar sector boundary crossing to a negative orientation accompanied by increased density and slight (-5 nT) southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet levels. On Day 3 (04 April), it will become unsettled with the possiblity of an isolated active period as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Apr 107
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  110/115/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

All times in UTC

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