Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N17W19) produced a C1 flare at 04/1627Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (05-07 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (05 April) due to a weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that occurred on 02 April. Days two and three (06-07 April) are expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Apr 102
  Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        04 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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