Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1450 (N15W31) produced a B9 flare at 05/1327Z and a C3/1f flare at 05/1624Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (06-08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours with minor to severe storm periods at high latitudes. The increased activity was associated with periods of sustained southward IMF Bz and increased IMF Bt associated with intermittent solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 April) due to the weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that occurred on 02 April. The field is expected to return to quiet levels on day two (7 April), then be at quiet to unsettled levels due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on day three (8 April).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 101
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm25%15%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%15%

All times in UTC

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